Enhancing Vegetable Price Forecasting Accuracy: A Hybrid SARIMA- DWT-GANN Approach

Abstract

In the context of Malaysia's agricultural sector, the development of a robust vegetable price forecasting model holds paramount importance. The pricing dynamics of vegetables can significantly affect various stakeholders, including farmers, distributors, and consumers. The agricultural sector in Malaysia encounters persistent challenges such as supply-demand imbalances, seasonal variations, and market uncertainties, which can lead to income disparities for farmers and disruption in supply chains. Addressing these issues requires accurate and timely predictions of vegetable prices to enhance planning, resource allocation, and decision-making. This study introduces an innovative SARIMA-DWT-GANN hybrid model for vegetable price forecasting. By fusing the strengths of traditional time series modeling with the capabilities of neural networks, the proposed model offers a comprehensive solution to capture both linear and non-linear price patterns. The results demonstrate the superiority of the SARIMA-DWT-GANN model over the individual SARIMA model, as evident from correlation coefficients that closely approach unity and p-values confirming statistical significance. The model's ability to predict price changes has significant implications for making informed decisions throughout the agricultural supply chain. This research provides a robust forecasting tool that not only enhances market efficiency and profitability but also offers a promising solution to address the challenges in Malaysia's agricultural sector.