Analyzing the Covid-19 Cases in Malaysia during the Transition to Endemic Phase

Abstract

Coronavirus disease (Covid-19) has contagiously hit the world since December 2019. Once the virus started spreading in Malaysia, people were very conscious of the virus infection and transmission which may cause of death. At the same time, the new cases were being highlighted daily through news in all social media sites. However, during the transition to endemic phase started on April 1, 2022, people were less concerned, and some even lost interest in knowing the Covid-19 news and cases. The aim of this study is to differentiate the pattern of daily cases and deaths of Covid-19 disease during the pandemic phase and the endemic phase. This study also attempts to observe the expected spreading pattern of Covid-19 starting from the first day of the endemic phase using SEIR Model. The data for this study were gathered from November 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, and from April 1, 2022, to August 31, 2022, to represent the pandemic phase and the endemic phase, respectively. The findings show that the average of daily infection cases and deaths decreased about 67% and 80%, respectively from the pandemic phase to the endemic phase. Based on the SEIR model for the transition to endemic phase, the spreading was at peak around the middle of April 2022 and then, it stabilized by the end of June 2022. Since the existing model only deals with reported cases, it is highly recommended to include the unreported cases as a new variable of interest for the extension of this study.