Mortality Analysis by Income Group of Civil Servants in Malaysia

Abstract

This paper presents a study on the mortality trend and its correlation with the income factor for the period of 2009-2018. Income factor is known to affect the social determinant of mortality in many ways. Individuals with higher income are known to experience lower mortality rates as compared to those with lower income. Income inequality promotes higher mortality risks due to limited and imbalance access of healthcare. Eventually, this may lead to social disparity and unhealthy economic situation to the country. This paper aims to further analyse the mortality trend based on the income distribution among civil servants in Malaysia. Future mortality rates are then being estimated for the next ten years, from 2019 and 2028. This study uses Heligman Pollard model to individualise the age group data of the civil servant income groups. Next, this study applies the Lee Carter Model to fit and estimate the mortality rates which then be forecasted using the ARIMA model. Results show that low income group recorded higher mortality rates than middle and high income groups. Whilst, the high income group provides strongest correlations to mortality rates with the highest positive correlations recorded in 2013. The weakest correlations recorded by low income group with the lowest negative correlations recorded in 2009. The forecasted mortality rates show gradual increased according to each income group of low, middle and high starting from ages 30, 33 and 36 respectively. The
increased in mortality rates affects the lower income group earlier than the higher income group. This study provides a customized and accurate mortality forecast by income status that strengthens the social security and public health systems in Malaysia through fair allocation of social funding and welfare.