Application of System Dynamics Modelling to Forecast Sustainability of The Coconut Industry in Malaysia

Abstract

Ranked 10^th globally among the largest coconut producers, Malaysia considers coconut as its fourth most significant industrial crop. Presently, there's an urgent need to revitalize Malaysia's coconut industry in terms of production. Beyond its role as a versatile food source, coconut presents valuable employment opportunities for farmers and communities. Statistical data reveals that Malaysia's coconut production demonstrated an upward trajectory until 2013, experienced a slight decline from 2014 to 2017, and resumed an upward trend until 2021. This study seeks to forecast the sustainability of Malaysia's coconut industry by employing a system dynamics approach, comprehensively analyzing various facets of the industry scenario. System dynamics utilizes simulation modeling to predict future trends in coconut production, imports, exports, and other relevant factors based on their interrelationships. The model's projections indicate growth in both coconut production and demand during the simulation period. The insights derived from this study can aid the Malaysian Ministry of Agriculture in devising actionable strategies to safeguard the sustainability of the coconut industry in the years ahead.